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1 Estimating experimental uncertainties: Generalities

In this contribution to the DANE physics handbook, we estimate the accuracies achievable at DANE in measuring the theoretical parameters describing the decay . We refer the reader to the contribution of Bijnens, Ecker, and Gasser [1] for a detailed discussion of the theory of this decay, and the definitions of the notation we use. We should note that we refer to this decay as K_e4 ; we consider only this particular decay and not the channels with neutral pions or kaons.

We will consider two of the possible ways of extracting the parameters of a theory from a set of data. The first one is the classic technique of asymmetries. K_e4 decays have a partial decay rate of the form

where s_ , s_l , , , and are the set of kinematic variables necessary to describe K_e4 , defined in Ref. [1]. The quantity can be written as an expansion in simple functions of and multiplying nine intensities , which can in turn be written in terms of the three remaining kinematical variables, and three form factors, F, G, and H, which are also dependent on these three kinematical variables. The explicit dependences may be found in Ref. [1]. As can be seen in the contribution of Colangelo, Knecht and Stern, [2] the tangent of the phase shift, , can be neatly extracted from the ratio of the intensity functions, , or, equivalently, , where by the tilde we denote intensities integrated over and as well as over . All of the , in turn, can be written as asymmetries; in particular we have

and

The asymmetry presents a transparent, elegant and quick (computationally) way to determine a parameter.

The second, and main, method we consider is that of the maximum likelihood, which we shall refer to as the MLM. [3] Let be the vector of phase space variables specifying an event in an experiment, and be the probability distribution function predicted by a theory. is the set of parameters in the theory, to be determined experimentally. The probability of observing an event at in the interval is . The function f is normalized to 1 over the whole interval in which is physical. In particular, if cuts are imposed on the phase space, f must be normalized over the reduced phase space; we must also be certain that the normalization is maintained even when the parameters are varied from their central value.

The likelihood, or joint probability distribution, of an experiment yielding N events, each specified by a set of phase space variables , is then defined as

The best estimate for is then simply the value which maximizes (or equivalently, of , which is easier to compute). It can be shown that the error matrix, in general non-diagonal for correlated parameters, is

 

Here the denote matrix inversion. This integral is, in general, not possible to compute analytically, but is easily evaluated numerically. If we start with a non-normalized probability function , then the following equation is useful:

where .

While this method is more complicated and time-consuming computationally, it has the decided advantage that it yields the absolute best possible determination of any given set of parameters. In today's age of fast computers, it is thus the method of choice. It also allows one to determine any parameters chosen, while the asymmetry is only good for certain parameters. Finally, the experimental uncertainties in the parameters can be determined reasonably easily, without need for an actual simulation of the determination of the parameters themselves using this method.

It is simple to see that the MLM should give a better determination of the parameters than an asymmetry: while the asymmetry only uses the information of whether an event is in one or another half of phase space, the MLM benefits from the information of the precise position of the event. For example, consider a process specified by the probability distribution

The parameter a can be determined by the ratio where is the number of events with between 0 and , and is the number of events with between and . For a small compared to 1, the error on a in this determination is thus where N is the total number of events. For the MLM, the integral in eq. 5 is

and the error on a in this determination is thus . While this improvement may not seem very impressive, larger improvements may be expected as the parametrization becomes more complicated. Using the MLM directly on the parameter that interests us, we are sure to use all possible information, and to take into account the effect of all possible cancelling uncertainties. We observe an improvement as above, of about fifteen percent, in the relative error when we go from the asymmetry method to the MLM. However, the relative error on when is determined directly via the MLM is two-thirds of its error when determined indirectly by the ratio , if these are determined using the MLM, and their errors are then combined as uncorrelated. This appears to be due to the information lost in integrating the over s_ , s_l , and \ before using the MLM.



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Next: Estimating experimental uncertainties Up: Chapter 7 Section 4 Previous: Chapter 7 Section 4



Carlos E.Piedrafita